Saturday, 26 September 2026

The Cost of Leaving

The Cost of Leaving

Mary Jane Veloso, citizenship abroad,
and the economics of protection 
 

When Ferdinand Marcos Jr. told reporters in Eastern Visayas that he had signed an absolute pardon for Mary Jane Veloso, the announcement was almost striking for how little ceremony it required. “I signed her pardon yesterday,” he said. The document had been signed on September 24, 2026; the following evening, after the Department of Justice transmitted the release order to the Bureau of Corrections, Veloso walked out of the Correctional Institution for Women in Mandaluyong. A case that had occupied presidents, prosecutors, diplomats, courts, churches, migrant organizations and two governments for more than a decade had reached its legal conclusion in the most ordinary way available to executive power: a paper had been placed before the President and the President had put his name on it.

There was nothing ordinary about what preceded the signature. Veloso was arrested at Yogyakarta’s airport in April 2010 after Indonesian authorities found 2.6 kilograms of heroin in her luggage. She was convicted and sentenced to death later that year. From the beginning she maintained that she had not knowingly carried narcotics, saying that recruiters who had promised her employment abroad had given her the suitcase. In April 2015 she was brought within hours of execution by firing squad before Indonesia unexpectedly spared her. She remained imprisoned there for nearly another decade and returned to the Philippines only in December 2024, after Manila and Jakarta negotiated her transfer. She was forty-one by the time Marcos pardoned her.

It is tempting to regard the pardon as the end of an unusually long humanitarian drama, and in the personal sense it is. No theory of development is needed to explain what freedom means to someone who has spent almost sixteen years imprisoned, much of that time under a death sentence. Children grew up while their mother was in prison. Parents aged while they waited. Appeals that once concerned whether Veloso would still be alive the following morning gradually became arguments about testimony, trafficking, prisoner transfer and finally clemency. The vocabulary changed because time changed the problem. 

But the Veloso case has never fitted comfortably inside the boundaries of one criminal conviction. It began with something considerably more ordinary in Philippine economic life: a woman needed work, and the work appeared to exist somewhere else. Between the worker and the promised livelihood stood recruiters, unfamiliar destinations, documents and travel arrangements she did not control, and people who knew considerably more about the proposed journey than she did. Veloso’s claim was that she trusted those intermediaries and accepted a suitcase whose illicit contents she did not know. Whether one approaches that account through criminal law, labor economics or the law of trafficking, the underlying asymmetry is familiar. A worker with few alternatives must often depend upon the person who claims to possess an opportunity. 

The extremity of Veloso’s eventual predicament can obscure how conventional its beginning was. The Philippines has spent decades learning to regard departure as one of the normal ways a household improves its circumstances. A job in Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Europe or aboard a ship may pay several times what the same worker can obtain at home. The first remittance can finance tuition, medicine, a roof repair, debt repayment or a small business. Overseas employment has become sufficiently ordinary that the elaborate institutional architecture surrounding it—recruitment agencies, training centers, government offices, remittance companies, banks, insurance products—can make the original economic fact seem almost invisible. Someone leaves because the expected return from leaving appears better than the expected return from staying. 

Most of those journeys do not end in an Indonesian prison. That is precisely why Veloso’s case is useful. Catastrophes reveal relationships that normal transactions conceal. The recruiter who honestly matches a worker to a foreign employer performs an economic service, reducing the cost of information and access. The dishonest recruiter exploits the same advantage. The worker usually knows less about the employer, the destination and the route. She may already have borrowed money. Her family may be waiting for the promised income. The intermediary may control not only access to the job but the documents, transportation and possessions accompanying the worker across a border. The same arrangement that makes labor mobility possible can, under sufficiently unequal conditions, make exploitation unusually easy. 

By April 2015, the economics of Veloso’s departure had been replaced by the mechanics of capital punishment. Indonesia was preparing to execute a group of prisoners convicted of narcotics offenses. Veloso was among them. Philippine appeals for clemency had failed. Then the circumstances changed. Maria Kristina Sergio, the recruiter accused of deceiving Veloso, surrendered to Philippine authorities, and Manila found itself in possession of a new argument. Veloso was no longer useful merely as a condemned prisoner asking for mercy; she might be a necessary witness against the people alleged to have trafficked her. 

Benigno Aquino III, then attending an ASEAN summit in Malaysia, appealed directly to Indonesian President Joko Widodo. Philippine officials argued that both countries had an interest in going beyond a courier and pursuing the network allegedly responsible for using her. Indonesian authorities halted Veloso’s execution while the other condemned prisoners were put to death. Reuters reported at the time that officials on the Philippine side understood the reprieve as an agreement, in effect, to pursue the larger trafficking network rather than simply punish what Cabinet Secretary Rene Almendras called a “mere courier.” 

The intervention deserves neither sentimental embellishment nor dismissal. Aquino’s critics were correct to note that the rescue came extraordinarily late. Migrant organizations had been raising questions about the case before the final hours. A state that arrives only when a citizen is already awaiting a firing squad cannot easily present itself as a model of preventive administration. Those who believed Veloso had been trafficked understandably wanted something more than a stay of execution. Their argument was not simply that Indonesia should postpone killing her, but that the circumstances surrounding her recruitment should fundamentally alter the way the case was understood. 

Yet timing does not make outcome irrelevant. The appeal came at the eleventh hour, but the eleventh hour has unusual importance when the twelfth is execution. Aquino did not compel Indonesia to repudiate its legal system. The Philippine government instead supplied Jakarta with another interest that could operate within Indonesian sovereignty: a living Veloso could testify in a criminal case involving the people alleged to have arranged the journey. Indonesia retained jurisdiction. It retained its judgment. But diplomacy created room within the exercise of Indonesian authority. 

This distinction becomes important because the reprieve was followed almost immediately by an uglier argument at home. When Celia Veloso returned to the Philippines after her daughter had been spared, she was expected by some supporters of the Aquino administration to speak principally in gratitude. Instead, she thanked the people, churches, migrant groups and others who had rallied to her daughter’s cause and then spoke angrily about the government. She said the case had been neglected and that the family had questions for officials now that they were back in the country. “There are many things we will demand answers for from the government,” she said in substance at the May 1 press conference. 

The reaction was remarkable. Celia was denounced as "ingrata"—an ingrate. Social-media users attacked the family for criticizing an administration that, they argued, had just prevented Mary Jane’s execution. Some posts went beyond criticism into fantasies of punishment. The hashtag politics of the moment included calls for Celia herself to face a firing squad. Contemporary reporting recorded the intensity of the backlash; days later, Celia publicly appealed for understanding, explaining that her anger came from the experience of watching a daughter she believed innocent sit in a foreign prison and nearly die. 

One pro-Aquino comment from the period captured the political psychology better than any formal defense of the administration could have done. It scoffed at the Veloso family for suggesting that Aquino had failed them, arguing that without his breaking protocol Mary Jane would have been “riddled with bullets” along with the other foreigners executed that night. It then moved beyond defending Aquino and questioned Veloso’s innocence itself: perhaps, the writer suggested, she knew what was in the suitcase and had been blinded by money; perhaps the family would have enjoyed the commission had the shipment succeeded. The family were then called ingrates. Yet the same political voice could later express surprise that Veloso remained alive after Duterte had taken a markedly harder position toward her case. 

It would be unfair to treat one social-media comment as representative of Aquino’s constituency, just as it would be careless to assume that every person who criticized Celia was part of an organized operation. But the episode became notable enough to generate subsequent academic study. A 2016 article in the University of the Philippines journal Daluyan, “#ingrata at si Mary Jane Veloso: Mga Bakas ng Trolling sa Spreadable Media,” examined the controversy specifically as a case involving political trolling and the circulation of the ingrata label. A contemporaneous Pinoy Weekly investigation also argued that some suspicious accounts participating in the attack appeared to behave like organized political trolls, while acknowledging that many genuine users shared the same views. What these materials establish is the existence of a trolling controversy and a recognizable pattern of political messaging; they do not establish, on their own, that Malacañang centrally ordered an “ingrata” campaign. That is an important distinction in a history already overburdened with partisan certainty. 

The more interesting fact is that such coordination was not necessary for the argument to flourish. The moral intuition behind ingrata was already culturally familiar. A powerful figure had helped someone in distress; the beneficiary should therefore exhibit gratitude. Criticism after receiving assistance appeared unseemly, almost treacherous. Translated from the household or patron-client relationship into politics, however, the idea produces an unusual theory of citizenship. It suggests that when a government performs an obligation successfully, the citizen incurs a personal political debt to the officials who performed it. 

This is where the Veloso affair becomes more than another partisan quarrel from the Aquino years. A democracy cannot easily operate on the proposition that citizens petition the state as clients approaching a patron. A president does not spend his private fortune when the foreign service intervenes abroad. Diplomats, prosecutors and officials act under public authority and are paid from public funds. If they save a citizen’s life, that achievement can be acknowledged without transforming the rescued family into political dependents. 

Gratitude and accountability can exist simultaneously. Celia Veloso could recognize that Aquino’s final intervention mattered while still asking why the case had reached the firing squad before such urgency appeared. The two propositions do not cancel each other. A family whose house is saved by firefighters may thank the firefighters and still ask why building inspections failed. A business protected from fraud by regulators may recognize the enforcement action while still questioning why the warning signs were ignored. Public administration is evaluated over a sequence of actions; a successful final act does not purchase immunity from examination of everything preceding it. 

This was particularly obvious when one looked beyond Philippine partisan politics. More than a decade ago, support for Veloso was hardly confined to Filipinos or to the domestic opposition. Indonesian migrant workers became prominent participants in the campaign to save her. Migrante International later thanked Indonesian migrant organizations for helping lead the effort in Indonesia and said their appeals to Widodo had been crucial to the suspension of the execution. Reporting at the time described Indonesian migrant groups, women’s organizations and other activists holding vigils and lobbying Indonesian authorities. 

Their involvement made intuitive sense. Indonesian migrant workers did not need to share Philippine party allegiances to recognize the structure of the story. Many had themselves left home through recruitment networks, worked under foreign employers and lived in countries where a misunderstanding, abusive contract or confiscated document could suddenly become a legal crisis. The argument that Veloso might have been a trafficking victim rather than an intentional drug smuggler resonated because the underlying vulnerability was not uniquely Filipino. It belonged to migrant labor. 

I remember that atmosphere in Hong Kong around the eve of May Day in 2015. At an interfaith gathering, Indonesian migrant women were crying over the prospect that Mary Jane might be executed. Elsewhere in Hong Kong, Indonesian and Filipino migrant workers demonstrated together; Antara reported Indonesian workers joining Filipinos outside the Indonesian consulate to demand that the execution be stopped. They carried the issue not as an abstraction about Philippine presidential performance but as something recognizably close to their own lives. 

It is difficult to reconcile that scene with the online desire to punish Celia for insufficient gratitude. The women crying in Hong Kong were not asking whether Aquino deserved credit in the next election. They were reacting to the possibility that a migrant worker might be killed despite credible indications that she had been used by others. Yet in Manila the argument was rapidly being translated into the grammar of partisan loyalty: the President had acted, therefore the family should know whom to thank; criticism of the administration was treated almost as a betrayal of the rescue itself. 

The strange consequence was that some defenders of Aquino began to reproduce a punitive logic that would become much easier to recognize during the Duterte era. If Mary Jane carried the drugs, perhaps she deserved the consequences. If the President saved her, the family should stop complaining. If they continued to complain, perhaps they did not deserve sympathy in the first place. The rhetoric differed from Duterte’s later language, but one premise was surprisingly durable: once the state had acted, the citizen’s claim to challenge the state became morally suspect. 

Rodrigo Duterte approached the case from another direction, although the eventual destination could look familiar. During his September 2016 visit to Indonesia, Duterte met Widodo. Indonesian reports subsequently quoted Widodo as saying that Duterte had given a “go-ahead” concerning Veloso’s execution. Philippine officials disputed that account. Presidential spokesman Ernesto Abella said Duterte had told Widodo, “Follow your own laws. I will not interfere.” Foreign Affairs Secretary Perfecto Yasay likewise denied that Duterte had issued an explicit green light. The Palace position was that Duterte had accepted Indonesia’s right to follow its judicial process rather than personally authorized Veloso’s death. 

That qualification matters. Political memory has a habit of simplifying ambiguous exchanges until the version most useful to one faction becomes common knowledge. It would be inaccurate to state as proven fact that Duterte directly instructed Indonesia to execute Veloso. Indonesian and Philippine accounts differed. Duterte himself initially kept the details of the closed-door conversation private and said publicly after the visit that the Philippines and Indonesia would continue to respect each other’s judicial processes because “the rule of law is what matters.” 

His later remarks, however, make the underlying view considerably easier to understand. In a December 2016 interview, Duterte said he could not ask for a reprieve for someone convicted in a drug case. “A criminal is a criminal,” he said. His formulation was reciprocal: Filipinos should not interfere with another country’s laws if they did not want foreigners interfering with Philippine law. On drugs, his answer was essentially that offenders had to face the consequences. 

This was more than a statement about narcotics. It reflected a particular conception of citizenship abroad, one closer to the classical territorial understanding of sovereignty than to the increasingly expansive language of consular protection. A Filipino remained Filipino after entering Indonesia, but Philippine nationality did not travel with her as a portable legal enclave. Indonesian territory meant Indonesian law. Indonesian courts determined criminal responsibility. Indonesian penalties followed Indonesian judgments. The Philippine passport identified her nationality and entitled her to consular representation, but it did not place a second criminal jurisdiction around her. 

The familiar expression is “When in Rome, do as the Romans do.” It is useful if one does not push it too far. A Filipino entering Indonesia does not stop being Filipino, any more than an Indonesian entering Manila loses Indonesian nationality. What changes is the governing jurisdiction. Citizenship does not give the traveler the option of choosing between two legal systems according to convenience. Territorial sovereignty supplies the first answer to the ordinary criminal-law question: whose law applies here? 

Duterte’s formulation therefore possessed a certain austere coherence. The state might act vigorously when an overseas Filipino was abused by an employer, abandoned by a recruiter or mistreated outside the law, while showing much greater restraint when the host state had already investigated, tried and convicted the Filipino through its own institutions. In that sense, protection had limits. The government could help its citizen navigate the foreign system, but it should not behave as though the foreign system ceased to matter merely because the accused possessed a Philippine passport. 

This view also sat comfortably beside Duterte’s broader foreign-policy doctrine. Returning from regional meetings in September 2016, he repeatedly emphasized “sovereign equality, non-interference and commitment to peaceful settlements of disputes” as principles of his independent foreign policy. The point was larger than Veloso. Duterte wanted relations among states understood as relations among sovereign equals rather than as hierarchies in which one government lectured another about its internal affairs. 

The Veloso case exposed the difficulty hidden inside the elegance of that principle. If she were simply an intentional drug courier, the territorial argument was straightforward. Indonesia had arrested her, tried her and imposed a sentence under Indonesian law. But if she were a trafficking victim who had been deceived into carrying the suitcase, then the fact of conviction did not exhaust the factual problem. Philippine authorities were prosecuting people alleged to have recruited her. Her testimony had become relevant to those proceedings. The categories no longer aligned neatly: the person whom one jurisdiction had convicted as an offender might simultaneously be treated by another as a victim and witness. 

Aquino’s 2015 intervention worked precisely because his government exploited that ambiguity. He did not claim that Indonesia lacked jurisdiction. Manila instead argued that Indonesian interests and Philippine interests intersected: keeping Veloso alive could help expose the network alleged to have placed the drugs in her luggage. The reprieve therefore demonstrated something that the phrase “follow your own laws” can easily obscure. Vigorous diplomatic advocacy and respect for foreign sovereignty are not necessarily opposites. 

This is the difference between recognizing jurisdiction and treating jurisdiction as the end of diplomacy. Governments routinely ask one another for clemency, sentence commutation, humanitarian treatment, evidentiary cooperation and prisoner transfers. None of these requests requires the supplicant government to claim that its own law supersedes the law of the host state. The very existence of diplomacy reflects the fact that sovereign legal systems can have overlapping interests without sharing jurisdiction. 

Duterte’s harder formulation gave greater weight to the conviction itself. “A criminal is a criminal” compresses a complicated set of facts into a status: once law has determined guilt, the political question changes. In the setting of his domestic anti-drug campaign, punishment also had an exemplary function. The offender was not only someone receiving a penalty but someone through whom a warning could be communicated. 

It would go beyond the evidence to conclude that Duterte personally wanted Veloso to die. His government denied that he had ordered such an outcome, and the disputed Widodo account does not prove otherwise. But the political logic of deterrence is visible in Duterte’s own language. Once drugs were involved, his sympathy narrowed. Whether a courier said she had been deceived or exploited became less politically salient than the danger of appearing to excuse a narcotics offense. Punishment instructed others. 

There is a curious continuity here with the earlier ingrata controversy. Some people who opposed Duterte politically had already accepted a related penal intuition while defending Aquino: Mary Jane had been convicted; she had drugs in her luggage; the Aquino government had nevertheless saved her; therefore her family had little standing to demand more. Under Duterte the partisan alignment changed, but the idea that the citizen had reached the limit of what she could reasonably demand from the state remained surprisingly portable. 

The contradiction becomes clearer if one asks a basic democratic question. Does pressuring a government to defend or free a citizen require patronage? If the state acts, is the citizen then indebted to the administration? Such a view makes sense within a system of personal favors: a political patron intervenes, the beneficiary remembers the debt, loyalty follows. It makes much less sense within the theory of republican government. The government is not an independent benefactor. Its diplomatic service exists partly to represent nationals abroad. Its officials exercise delegated authority. The citizen may owe appreciation to individuals who worked exceptionally hard, but gratitude cannot logically extinguish the right to criticize policy. 

Nor does democracy require the family of a prisoner to adopt the government’s preferred interpretation of events. Celia Veloso had watched her daughter approach execution. Her anger may have been politically inconvenient and, at times, rhetorically excessive. That did not create an obligation to become an administration spokesperson after the reprieve. A government confident that its intervention was successful ought to be able to withstand criticism from the family it helped. 

This point matters because patronage thinking and punitive thinking can reinforce one another. The first says that protection is a favor and therefore gratitude is owed. The second says that protection can be withheld from those judged unworthy. Together they transform citizenship from a durable legal relationship into a moral assessment conducted by the state or its supporters: the obedient and grateful citizen deserves help; the troublesome citizen may be left to the consequences. 

Yet citizenship abroad is valuable precisely because governments cannot know in advance which citizen will become inconvenient. Consular protection would mean little if it existed only for people whose innocence was obvious, whose behavior was exemplary and whose families praised the administration. The difficult cases test the institution. They are precisely the cases in which the government must separate its political preferences from its public obligations. 

Duterte’s own foreign policy adds another layer to the problem because he repeatedly described international relations in practical and economic terms. His administration courted investment in China, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore and told business leaders that the Philippines was open for business. In Singapore he emphasized infrastructure, energy, competition and a more investment-friendly environment. At APEC he linked foreign engagement to infrastructure, rural development, human capital and the competitiveness of Philippine business. After his China visit, the administration explicitly said that foreign relations should help create an economy in which working abroad became “an option and no longer a need.” 

There is much that is sensible in such an approach. Foreign relations cannot subsist on ceremonies and communiqués alone. Developing countries require markets, investment, technology, energy security and infrastructure finance. A government that neglects those interests in favor of permanent geopolitical theater does not necessarily serve its citizens better. Economic diplomacy is diplomacy. 

The problem arises when the definition of economics becomes too narrow. Trade, investment, loans and infrastructure are easily classified as economic because they appear in familiar financial categories. A migrant worker in legal trouble is classified as consular or humanitarian. Yet for the Philippines this division is artificial. Labor itself is one of the country’s major international economic flows. 

The numbers make the point without requiring romantic language about modern-day heroes. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas reported roughly $39.6 billion in personal remittances in 2025, including about $35.6 billion in cash remittances sent through banks. In the first half of 2026, remittance inflows continued to support household income and domestic demand. These are not incidental sums. They influence consumption, housing, education, savings, creditworthiness and the country’s supply of foreign exchange. 

If foreign relations are to be treated substantially as economics, then the overseas worker cannot be placed outside the economic relationship the moment something goes wrong. The worker is not a sentimental attachment to a commercial foreign policy. The worker is part of the commercial relationship. Employers abroad obtain labor; Philippine households obtain wages; banks and remittance firms process the transfers; recruiters and training providers earn income; the balance of payments records the result. 

This is why “respect their laws,” although entirely defensible at one level, can become too convenient at another. It allows a government to separate the pleasant parts of labor mobility from the difficult ones. Wages sent home are economic. A worker sentenced abroad becomes a legal problem belonging to the other country. Investment is bilateral. Consular protection is humanitarian. The classification makes sense bureaucratically, but the underlying economy does not observe it. 

A company cannot reasonably count the income from an activity while insisting that the risks created by the activity belong to someone else. Supply-chain security is part of the cost of trade. Fraud prevention is part of banking. Safety systems are part of manufacturing. Insurance is part of transportation. In the same way, legal assistance, anti-trafficking cooperation and credible consular intervention are costs associated with an economy that sends large numbers of workers into foreign jurisdictions. 

Mary Jane Veloso provides an extreme illustration of what happens when those costs are recognized only after failure. The state eventually deployed enormous institutional resources. Diplomats made representations to Jakarta. Presidents spoke directly. Lawyers pursued parallel proceedings. Prosecutors investigated alleged recruiters. Indonesian migrant organizations joined the campaign. Indonesian officials halted an execution, maintained the prisoner for years and later negotiated her transfer. What had begun as one person’s employment journey became an intergovernmental affair stretching across administrations. 

From a business perspective, this resembles the familiar problem of privatized gains and socialized losses, although the phrase must be used with care. The recruiter who successfully places a worker receives a fee. The foreign employer gets labor. The family receives remittances. The state gains foreign exchange. But when the labor-migration transaction collapses catastrophically, the expenses move outward. The worker loses years. The family pays legal and emotional costs. Courts, diplomats and agencies expend resources. Political capital may be consumed in negotiations with another government. 

Prevention is usually cheaper than rescue, but the institutions benefiting from a transaction do not always bear the entire cost when it fails. This is why better regulation of recruitment matters, but also why regulation by itself cannot answer the entire problem. It treats the point at which vulnerability is exploited; it does not necessarily change the economic conditions producing vulnerability. 

Francis Pangilinan’s response to Veloso’s pardon concentrated on the first level. Illegal recruiters, human traffickers and drug syndicates, he said, should face stronger action because they exploit people seeking work abroad. Sarah Elago of Gabriela placed the case within a broader structure, arguing that Filipinos would remain vulnerable while cheap labor and economically compelled migration continued to shape the labor market. Their political traditions are different, but the two observations need not contradict each other. One asks how predators operate inside the overseas-employment system. The other asks why the system continually produces workers whose need for opportunity weakens their bargaining position. 

The Philippines does not need to romanticize staying home in order to consider this question seriously. Migration is often an exercise of freedom. A nurse who prefers London, a software engineer who chooses Singapore or a seafarer who enjoys an international career is not proof that the Philippine economy has failed. Wealthy societies also send workers abroad. The relevant distinction is between migration as an attractive option and migration as the ordinary household remedy for insufficient opportunity. 

When the second condition becomes widespread, the recruiter acquires unusual economic power. A prospective migrant may know little about the employer beyond what the agency says. She may not understand the host country’s legal system. She may already have borrowed money to obtain documents and transportation. Her relatives may be counting on income that has not yet been earned. Turning down the offer therefore imposes a cost even before departure. 

The intermediary stands in a different position. He knows—or claims to know—the employer, the destination and the process. An honest agent reduces information costs. A dishonest one exploits them. The same asymmetry that allows efficient matching also allows fraud. Veloso’s account that she accepted luggage from people arranging her journey is an extreme version of the point. The person controlling access to the opportunity can acquire influence over details that would otherwise appear absurdly personal: which route the worker takes, which document she presents, which bag she carries. 

Economic desperation does not erase personal responsibility, and one should be cautious about turning every migrant who encounters legal trouble into a passive victim. But desperation alters bargaining power. A person with credible alternatives can decline a suspicious offer. A person who believes this is the only route out may accept conditions that would otherwise appear unreasonable. That difference matters to any serious analysis of trafficking. 

Regulation operates against this imbalance. Governments can license recruiters, investigate agencies, verify contracts, provide pre-departure education, negotiate labor agreements and fund legal assistance abroad. These measures reduce risk. Yet the strongest protection remains the ability to say no. A labor market that provides productive employment at home gives the worker an exit option before the journey begins. 

This is where the celebration of remittances requires business discipline. The inflows are valuable and measurable. They appear each month in central-bank releases and enter discussions of consumption, reserves and the balance of payments. The costs are more dispersed. Recruitment debt appears in household budgets. Separation appears in family life. Abuse becomes a labor or criminal case. Legal emergencies become consular expenditures. Years lost to detention disappear almost entirely from conventional economic accounting. 

A corporation that reported revenue without discussing contingent liabilities would not be regarded as especially sophisticated. Yet national discussion of labor export often comes close to doing precisely that. The foreign exchange is visible; the risks are treated as individual tragedies occurring outside the economic model that helped produce the movement in the first place. 

Duterte’s own government seemed aware of the contradiction. Its economic diplomacy explicitly pursued the kind of investment and domestic growth that, in its language, would eventually make overseas employment an option rather than a necessity. That aspiration deserves to be separated from the administration’s more restrictive view of intervention in foreign criminal cases. The two positions reveal a tension rather than a simple inconsistency. Duterte wanted a sovereign state whose citizens would not have to leave for economic survival; at the same time, when a citizen abroad became subject to another sovereign’s criminal law, he placed unusual weight on non-interference. 

The classical appeal of this position is easy to understand. Citizenship tells you which republic you belong to; territory tells you which law governs you at a given moment. The Philippine state cannot follow every citizen overseas with an invisible boundary around her. But nationality does not become meaningless merely because territorial jurisdiction shifts. If that were so, consular diplomacy itself would be difficult to explain. 

Citizenship abroad has always contained this dual condition. The citizen is subject to the laws of the host state while remaining a national of the home state. Those two facts create the problem that diplomacy exists to manage. A consul cannot overturn the foreign court, but the consul can seek access, ensure representation, transmit evidence, request humane treatment or ask that extraordinary circumstances be considered. A president cannot issue an order to a foreign prison, but a president can ask another president to exercise discretion available under that country’s own law. 

Seen from this perspective, “When in Rome” is not an answer to the Veloso case so much as the beginning of the question. Of course a visitor to Rome obeys Roman law. But suppose the visitor says someone secretly placed contraband in her possession. Suppose alleged recruiters are subsequently arrested in her own country. Suppose her testimony is required to prosecute them. None of these facts abolishes Roman jurisdiction. They do, however, create reasons for the visitor’s own government to speak. 

The dispute between Aquino and Duterte can therefore be described without turning either into a moral caricature. Aquino’s intervention was consequential and very late. Duterte’s theory of territorial sovereignty was coherent and risked becoming too rigid. Aquino demonstrated that diplomatic pressure could operate within respect for Indonesian law. Duterte demonstrated the political appeal of a bright line: the host country’s judgment should normally be accepted, particularly where drugs were concerned. 

Marcos encountered the case at yet another stage. By the time his administration dealt with Veloso, there was no execution scheduled for that week. Years of delay had transformed the problem. The relevant questions were now whether Indonesia would transfer the prisoner, what legal effect the transfer would have and whether the Philippine president could ultimately exercise clemency. Jakarta agreed to send Veloso home in December 2024. Marcos then faced a decision unavailable to Aquino in 2015 and unnecessary to Duterte in 2016: whether to pardon a woman physically in Philippine custody but carrying an Indonesian sentence. On September 24, 2026, he did. 

The three administrations therefore confronted different versions of Mary Jane Veloso. Aquino confronted an execution measured in hours. Duterte confronted a continuing sentence and a question of how aggressively Manila should challenge another state’s penal policy. Marcos confronted a prisoner transfer and clemency. Any comparison that ignores those differences in circumstance risks becoming merely partisan bookkeeping. 

The more useful comparison concerns the conception of the state underneath each moment. Aquino’s final intervention treated diplomatic advocacy as compatible with foreign sovereignty. Duterte stressed that Philippine citizenship did not give a person exemption from another country’s laws. Marcos eventually exercised the sovereign discretion available to the Philippines once Veloso had been returned. These were different instruments applied to different stages, and each tells us something about what government believes citizenship entitles a person to expect. 

The "ingrata" episode adds another dimension because it asks what government believes the citizen owes in return. The answer in a democratic state should be limited. Citizens can be grateful. They can also remain angry. They may praise one action and condemn another. The state does not lose legitimacy when a rescued citizen refuses to become a grateful client. 

There is, after all, something odd in demanding political gratitude from a family while simultaneously celebrating the state for fulfilling a public function. If Aquino’s intervention was admirable because the Philippine government protected a Filipino, then protection was being treated as part of legitimate government. If it was instead a personal favor for which political gratitude was owed, the democratic basis for the praise becomes much weaker. 

The issue extends beyond one administration. Patronage language survives changes of party because it is older than any party. Philippine politics has long blurred the distinction between public service and personal benefaction. A scholarship funded by taxes acquires the politician’s name. Relief goods become evidence of generosity. Access to public institutions is narrated as the accomplishment of a patron. The beneficiary is encouraged to remember who “helped.” 

The danger is not merely symbolic. Once public obligations are recast as favors, selective protection becomes easier to justify. A grateful citizen is deserving; an angry citizen appears less so. A politically inconvenient family can be portrayed as unreasonable even when its substantive complaint remains unanswered. 

Celia Veloso’s refusal to perform gratitude therefore mattered in ways that were easy to miss amid the anger of 2015. She was not arguing that Aquino’s final intervention had no effect on the execution. She was asserting, however crudely, that one successful act did not erase years of frustration. The ferocity of the response revealed how uncomfortable that distinction can be in a political culture accustomed to treating access to state power as a personal transaction. 

The Indonesian migrant women who supported Mary Jane offered, unintentionally, a different model. They had no patronage relationship with Aquino. Many had no political relationship with the Philippines at all. Their solidarity rested on shared economic conditions. They saw a migrant worker whose vulnerability resembled their own. To the extent that the campaign succeeded in making Indonesian authorities look at Veloso differently, it did so by moving her out of the abstract category “drug trafficker” and into the concrete world of recruitment, migration and unequal power. 

That is perhaps the most consequential transformation in the entire case. A legal category had to be reopened by economic facts. The suitcase contained heroin; that was never in dispute. The deeper question was how the suitcase came to be in Veloso’s hands and what she knew about it. The business of recruitment, usually treated as background, became central to the meaning of the crime. 

This is also why the case should resist easy conclusions. “Respect foreign law” is correct but insufficient. “Protect every Filipino” is morally appealing but too broad to function as a legal doctrine. “End labor export” captures one critique of economic dependence but can overlook the agency and genuine benefits experienced by many migrants. “Celebrate remittances” recognizes their economic importance while ignoring the costs distributed outside the national accounts. 

The more useful approach is to hold the contradictions together. The Philippines benefits from labor mobility and should therefore invest in the institutions that make mobility safer. Citizens abroad remain subject to foreign jurisdiction and should therefore be warned clearly that a passport is not immunity. Governments should respect foreign legal systems while retaining the diplomatic confidence to ask for exceptions, clemency or reconsideration when particular facts warrant them. Migrants should possess greater bargaining power before departure so that the need for rescue arises less often. 

This is where foreign relations understood as economics must become broader rather than narrower. Duterte was correct that trade, investment and infrastructure belong at the center of statecraft. But labor mobility means that workers belong there too. A foreign policy that can spend presidential attention securing an infrastructure loan should not regard the legal security of its migrant labor force as extraneous to economics. 

Good relations are not the same as quiet relations. Mature bilateral relations should be capable of accommodating disagreement about a prisoner without threatening trade. If a request for clemency is treated as an unacceptable disruption to commerce, then the commercial relationship has begun to dictate national policy rather than serve it. 

The same is true of sovereignty. Sovereignty does not mean never asking another state for anything. It means that the answer remains the other state’s to give. Aquino could ask; Widodo could refuse. Duterte could decline to ask; Indonesia retained its authority either way. Marcos could negotiate a transfer only because Indonesia agreed to one. Diplomacy occurs precisely in that space between what one government cannot command and what another government may nevertheless be persuaded to do. 

Mary Jane Veloso’s case lasted long enough for every stage of that process to become visible. First there was migration and recruitment. Then arrest and conviction. Then appeals. Then an alleged trafficking network. Then an eleventh-hour reprieve. Then an argument over gratitude. Then another president’s doctrine of non-interference. Then years of waiting, a transfer agreement and finally a pardon. 

The unusual length of the story is what makes it valuable to business policy. Nearly sixteen years separate the original employment journey from the presidential pardon. During that time the Philippines continued to rely heavily on overseas labor, administrations changed, the language of foreign policy shifted and remittance flows kept arriving. Veloso’s ordeal was exceptional; the economic structure that sent her abroad was not. 

This does not mean that the Philippines should aspire to stop its people from leaving. A government that attempted to trap labor at home would merely replace one problem with another. The more ambitious objective is to improve the domestic economy sufficiently that departure ceases to function as compulsion. That requires productive investment, industrial employment, services capable of paying competitive wages, infrastructure, education and the ordinary institutions of a functioning labor market. It is a more difficult program than regulating recruitment agencies because it reaches the source of bargaining power. 

A worker who has alternatives does not become invulnerable, but she becomes harder to exploit. She can question a dubious contract. She can decline to borrow against a promise. She can walk away from a recruiter who asks her to carry something she does not understand. Economic development becomes, in this sense, a form of anti-trafficking policy. 

The Veloso affair also suggests a more disciplined way of thinking about the economic contribution of migration. Remittances should be valued for what they are: income earned by workers and transferred to households. They should not be mistaken for a development strategy in themselves. They may finance private advancement without necessarily creating the domestic productive capacity that would allow the next generation to stay if it wishes. 

For decades, the Philippines has been extraordinarily good at producing workers capable of succeeding in other economies. The harder question is whether it can become equally good at producing enough high-productivity work for them at home. The answer determines whether the overseas worker is principally an expression of Filipino competitiveness or an adjustment mechanism for domestic economic weakness. 

Mary Jane Veloso entered this system at its most precarious end. She was not an engineer recruited by a multinational corporation with a legal department, nor an executive transferred within a global company. She was a worker seeking employment through informal or poorly protected networks, the part of migration in which information asymmetry is greatest and bargaining power weakest. The disaster that followed was extreme, but the vulnerability was structurally ordinary. 

The pardon cannot repair that structure. Nor can it make the politics surrounding the case disappear. Aquino’s role in the 2015 reprieve remains significant. Duterte’s remarks remain part of the record. Marcos’s pardon is now the act that formally closes the sentence. Supporters of each administration will naturally emphasize different parts of this history. 

But the most important lesson lies outside presidential credit. A modern state cannot promise that its citizens will never encounter foreign law, nor should it pretend that nationality overrides territorial jurisdiction. It can, however, build an economy in which fewer citizens must accept opaque arrangements simply because they need work. It can make recruitment more transparent. It can treat migrant protection as economic infrastructure. It can use diplomacy without confusing advocacy with interference. And it can perform those functions without expecting citizens to repay public service with partisan loyalty. That last point may be the simplest and the easiest to lose. The Veloso family did not receive the reprieve because a president owned the power of mercy as private property. Aquino exercised the office of the Philippine presidency. Duterte later exercised the same office according to a different conception of sovereignty. Marcos now exercises it in granting clemency. Presidents leave; the state remains. A democracy depends upon maintaining that distinction. The citizen may petition the state, criticize it, embarrass it and still retain a claim upon its lawful protection. That is not ingratitude. It is the difference between citizenship and patronage. And abroad, citizenship acquires an even more complicated meaning. The Filipino who enters Indonesia is obliged to obey Indonesian law. The Philippines cannot shield that person from the existence of another sovereign. Yet the citizen does not become politically orphaned at the immigration desk. The home state continues to possess interests and obligations, particularly when credible allegations of trafficking or coercion arise. 

 The old advice remains sound: when in Rome, do as the Romans do. What Mary Jane Veloso’s sixteen-year ordeal demonstrates is that this is a rule for travelers, not a complete theory of foreign policy. The difficult work begins when obedience, guilt, exploitation and citizenship cease to fit neatly together. Veloso left the Philippines looking for work. By the time she was finally free, the journey had passed through a recruiter, an Indonesian airport, a death sentence, a last-minute presidential appeal, an international migrant campaign, an ugly dispute over whether her mother was sufficiently grateful, a second president’s doctrine of non-interference, years of diplomatic negotiation, a prisoner transfer and an absolute pardon. Few employment journeys could accumulate a heavier institutional cost.  
For a country that has made labor mobility an important part of its economic life, that cost belongs in the ledger. The money sent home is real. So is the obligation created when the people earning it cross borders into legal systems the Philippines cannot control. The point of economic diplomacy should not be to choose between commerce and citizens. It should be to understand that, in a labor-exporting country, the citizens themselves are part of the commerce—and that protecting them is part of the price of doing business with the world. 

Monday, 21 September 2026

One China, Two Perspectives: Rethinking What the Policy Means for the Philippines

One China, Two Perspectives:
Rethinking What the Policy Means for the Philippines

Source: the Economist


The “One-China Policy” is often invoked in Philippine foreign-policy discussions as though its meaning were self-evident. The conventional formulation is familiar: there is one China, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the government representing China, Taiwan is part of China, and countries that recognize Beijing are expected to observe that position in their diplomatic relations.

There is, however, a problem with treating that formulation as the complete explanation. The phrase “One China” has a history that predates the PRC’s present diplomatic formulation. It emerged from a much longer contest over who had the political legitimacy to represent China. For much of the second half of the 20th century, the relevant dispute was not simply between Beijing and Taiwan as two separate political entities. It was a contest between the PRC in Beijing and the Republic of China (ROC), whose government relocated to Taiwan, with both governments claiming to represent China.

That history is important because it changes the question being asked. The issue is not merely whether there is “one China.” It is also which conception of China, which government’s claim to representation, and which historical interpretation provide the basis for saying that there is one China.

For Beijing, the answer is clear. The PRC is the sole legal government of China, Taiwan is part of China, and there cannot be “two Chinas” or an independent Taiwan. Taipei's position has evolved considerably over the decades, particularly as Taiwan developed its own democratic institutions and political identity, but the ROC's original position was itself based on a competing claim to represent China.

The international system eventually resolved the question of China's representation in favor of Beijing. But resolving representation is not necessarily the same thing as resolving every historical, political or legal question that has grown out of the Chinese civil war.

That distinction is particularly relevant when the United Nations is invoked as the definitive foundation of the contemporary One-China narrative.

Is the issue really about the United Nations?

United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 1971 is central to the history of the issue. The resolution restored the PRC's rights in the United Nations, recognized the representatives of the PRC government as the lawful representatives of China in the organization, and removed the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek. In institutional terms, it was decisive: Beijing obtained China's seat at the United Nations, while Taipei lost the ROC's representation there.

But the resolution raises a question that is often overlooked in public discussion: "is the Taiwan question fundamentally a question about the United Nations?" It is not. The UN is an important part of the history, but it is not the entirety of the history. Resolution 2758 settled who would represent China within the United Nations system. It did not, merely by determining the occupants of China's UN seat, erase the political history that produced the competing governments in the first place.

Nor should a resolution concerning representation automatically be treated as though it were a comprehensive international adjudication of every question concerning Taiwan's sovereignty, political status or future.

This is where the use of the United Nations as a kind of diplomatic alibi can become problematic. It allows a complicated historical contest over legitimacy to be reduced to an institutional outcome: the UN recognizes Beijing, therefore the broader One-China question is considered settled on Beijing's terms.

That conclusion goes beyond what the institutional question itself necessarily establishes. Beijing certainly has a broader interpretation. Chinese authorities regard Resolution 2758 as affirming the One-China principle and supporting the position that Taiwan is part of China. Taiwan and other governments and analysts have disputed that interpretation, particularly the proposition that the resolution itself constitutes a determination of Taiwan's sovereignty.

The existence of this dispute does not make Resolution 2758 irrelevant. Quite the opposite. It demonstrates why the resolution must be understood in its proper context.

The UN resolved the question of "who represents China in the organization". It did not transform a decades-long contest over Chinese legitimacy into a simple matter of historical nonexistence. The distinction may appear technical, but international relations frequently turn on precisely these technical distinctions. Representation, recognition, sovereignty and territorial claims are related concepts, but they are not interchangeable.

The historical problem of “One China”

The contemporary phrase can also obscure the fact that “One China” historically had competing meanings. For the PRC, the principle meant that there is one China, that the PRC is the sole legal government of China, and that Taiwan is part of Chinese territory. For the ROC, particularly during the earlier decades after 1949, the proposition was framed differently. The ROC did not initially regard itself as merely the government of Taiwan. It claimed to be the legitimate government of China.

Thus, the historical dispute was not simply “Beijing versus Taiwanese independence.” For a substantial period, it was a contest between two governments making competing claims to represent the same China.

That distinction matters because it shows why the phrase “One China” cannot simply be detached from the question of political legitimacy. The PRC ultimately prevailed in the international contest for diplomatic recognition. Most states shifted recognition from Taipei to Beijing, and the PRC assumed China's UN seat. Taiwan, meanwhile, continued to be governed separately under the ROC government and gradually developed a political system and identity distinct from the mainland.

The international community consequently arrived at a diplomatic arrangement that is inherently more complicated than the slogan suggests. Most states recognize Beijing as the government of China while maintaining various forms of unofficial relations with Taiwan.

The Philippines is part of this diplomatic system. But being part of that system does not necessarily require Manila to adopt every proposition contained in Beijing's broader political narrative.

What did the Philippines actually agree to?

The Philippine position has a clear historical foundation. When Manila established diplomatic relations with Beijing in 1975, the two countries issued a Joint Communiqué. The Philippines recognized the PRC as the sole legal government of China and stated that it understood and respected the Chinese position that Taiwan is part of Chinese territory.

This is an important commitment and should not be minimized. It forms part of the foundation of Philippine-China diplomatic relations and explains why official Philippine policy does not recognize Taiwan as a separate sovereign state.

But a diplomatic commitment should be read according to what it actually says and the context in which it was made. There is a meaningful difference between recognizing the PRC as the government representing China and accepting that every subsequent interpretation Beijing places upon the One-China principle automatically becomes a Philippine position.

The distinction is not unique to China. In international diplomacy, recognition of another government does not ordinarily mean that the recognizing state adopts every historical claim, territorial interpretation, strategic objective or political doctrine advanced by that government. Diplomatic recognition establishes a relationship between states and governments. It does not eliminate the independent foreign policy of the recognizing state.

This is where the Philippine discussion could benefit from greater precision. The relevant question is not whether Manila has a One-China Policy. It clearly does. The more useful question is "what the Philippine One-China Policy actually requires Manila to recognize, and what it does not require Manila to surrender." That is particularly important because the Philippines has interests of its own.

A policy cannot be separated from national interest

Philippine policy toward China cannot be considered exclusively through the prism of diplomatic recognition. China is one of the Philippines' most important economic and trading partners, while the Philippines is simultaneously a maritime state with its own territorial claims, security interests and obligations.

Taiwan is also not an abstract issue for Manila. Its geographic proximity means that instability in the Taiwan Strait could have direct consequences for Philippine commerce, shipping, supply chains, investment and energy security. The Philippines also has substantial people-to-people and economic ties with Taiwan, including a large Filipino workforce there.

From a business perspective alone, this makes excessive simplification undesirable. Companies do not operate according to diplomatic slogans. They deal with shipping routes, insurance premiums, supply-chain exposure, investment decisions, labor mobility, market access and political risk. A significant disruption in the Taiwan Strait would not remain a theoretical geopolitical problem; it could become an economic problem for the Philippines.

This does not mean that Manila should abandon its One-China Policy. It means that the policy has to coexist with the Philippines' responsibility to protect its own interests.

There is no inherent contradiction in maintaining official diplomatic relations with Beijing while sustaining substantial unofficial economic, commercial, cultural and people-to-people relations with Taiwan. Indeed, this is broadly how many governments manage the practical consequences of the cross-Strait divide. The question is therefore one of diplomatic scope.

Recognition is not the same as deference

There is a tendency in some discussions to treat the One-China Policy as though it were a comprehensive commitment to Beijing's worldview. That is where a diplomatic policy can quietly become something much larger than its original purpose.

Recognizing Beijing does not necessarily mean that Manila must accept Beijing's interpretation of every development involving Taiwan. Nor does it mean that the Philippines must treat every Chinese statement concerning the Taiwan Strait as though it were an authoritative interpretation of Philippine obligations.

There is an important distinction between "acknowledging another state's position" and "adopting that position as one's own".

The Philippine formulation in its 1975 diplomatic agreement is instructive precisely because it used language concerning the Philippine government's understanding and respect for the Chinese position. That language belongs to the diplomatic history of the relationship and should be taken seriously. But it should also be distinguished from the broader and more categorical formulation Beijing uses when describing its own One-China principle.

This distinction becomes particularly important when the issue intersects with Philippine sovereignty. A sovereign state cannot reasonably be expected to regard its own foreign policy as infinitely elastic simply because another state attaches a broader meaning to a diplomatic commitment.

The Philippines can recognize China's government while retaining an independent assessment of what its own national interests require. It can avoid taking a position on Taiwan's ultimate political status while still preparing for the economic and security consequences of developments across the Taiwan Strait. It can maintain its diplomatic relationship with Beijing while continuing practical relations with Taiwan. That is not necessarily a contradiction. It is the normal complexity of statecraft.

The problem with making Beijing the default definition

The deeper issue, then, is the tendency to treat Beijing's interpretation of “One China” as though it were the definition of the term itself.

This is understandable from Beijing's perspective. The PRC is the internationally recognized government of China and holds China's seat at the United Nations. It is therefore unsurprising that Beijing would present its interpretation as the authoritative one.

But other countries do not have to surrender the distinction between "China's position" and "their own policy". This is particularly important for the Philippines because diplomatic language has practical consequences.

If Manila says that it recognizes the PRC as the government of China, that establishes one thing. If Beijing then says that this recognition necessarily requires Manila to accept every element of the PRC's interpretation concerning Taiwan, regional security, military activities or Philippine policy, that is a second proposition. The second proposition requires its own justification.

It should not be smuggled into Philippine policy simply by repeating the phrase “One China.” This is why the debate over terminology is not merely semantic. The language used in diplomatic statements establishes the boundaries within which governments later interpret their obligations.

A broad interpretation may produce a very different foreign policy from a narrower one.

What about Taiwan?

None of this requires the Philippines to recognize Taiwan as an independent sovereign state. That would be a separate policy question. Nor does it require Manila to reject the PRC's position.

The more modest argument is that Taiwan's practical existence cannot be wished away simply because most countries do not recognize it diplomatically as a sovereign state. Taiwan has its own government, legal and economic institutions, political system, armed forces and international economic relationships. Its political status is contested, and its international participation remains constrained by the diplomatic consequences of the PRC's position and by the policies of other states. These facts coexist. The Philippines can acknowledge these practical realities without altering its formal diplomatic recognition of Beijing.

Indeed, this distinction is essential for business and economic policy. Philippine companies dealing with Taiwan do not cease to exist because Manila maintains a One-China Policy. Trade does not become illegitimate. Educational exchanges do not become illegitimate. Investment does not cease to have economic value.

The challenge for government is to maintain these practical relationships without creating unnecessary conflict with its formal diplomatic commitments. That requires careful policy, not slogans.

The danger of confusing international recognition with historical finality

There is also a broader lesson in the way the One-China issue is discussed. International recognition can settle the practical question of which government other states will deal with. It does not necessarily settle every historical argument surrounding legitimacy.

The PRC won the international contest for recognition as the government representing China. That is an established feature of the present international system. But the historical fact that another government once made the same claim does not disappear because the international balance changed.

Nor does the separate political development of Taiwan disappear. This is why describing the history simply as “China and Taiwan” can itself be misleading. It projects today's political geography backward onto a period in which the central dispute was explicitly about which government represented China.

Understanding that history does not require endorsing the ROC's former claim, nor does it require rejecting the PRC's current position. It simply makes the analysis more accurate.

What should matter to Manila?

For the Philippines, the practical issue is ultimately one of policy autonomy. Manila does not need to choose between Beijing's entire political narrative and Taipei's historical narrative. It needs to determine what its own diplomatic commitments mean and how those commitments interact with Philippine national interests. That means maintaining the One-China Policy where it forms part of the country's established diplomatic position, while being precise about its scope.

It means recognizing the PRC as the government with which Manila maintains official diplomatic relations without assuming that recognition transfers to Beijing the authority to define Philippine policy on every issue. It means understanding Resolution 2758 as an important part of the history of China's representation at the United Nations without using it as a substitute for analysis of the broader Taiwan question.

And it means recognizing that Philippine sovereignty and national interest remain distinct from the diplomatic question of which government represents China. This last point is particularly important as economic and security questions increasingly overlap.

The Philippines is not an abstract observer of the Taiwan Strait. It sits near one of the world's most important commercial and strategic waterways. Its economy is integrated into regional supply chains. Its workers, companies and consumers are exposed to developments in both mainland China and Taiwan.

Foreign policy therefore has an economic dimension that cannot be ignored. A policy that is diplomatically neat but analytically imprecise can create problems when geopolitical tensions reach the level of trade, investment, logistics and national security.

A more precise way of looking at One China

The One-China Policy need not be discarded. But neither should it be treated as though its meaning were self-evident. A more precise reading begins by distinguishing several questions that are frequently collapsed into one.
  • First, "which government does the Philippines recognize as the government of China?" The answer is the PRC.

  • Second, "what position does Beijing take regarding Taiwan?" Beijing maintains that Taiwan is part of China and that the PRC is the sole legal government representing China.

  • Third, "what does UN Resolution 2758 establish?" It establishes the PRC's representation of China in the United Nations and removed the ROC representatives from China's UN seat. The broader implications of the resolution for Taiwan remain a matter of competing interpretation.

  • Fourth, "what did the Philippines itself agree to when it established diplomatic relations with Beijing?" That question should be answered from Philippine diplomatic documents, not simply from Beijing's subsequent characterization of the agreement.

  • And finally, "what remains within the Philippines' own sovereign policy discretion?" That last question is often the least discussed and perhaps the most important.
A country's foreign policy cannot consist solely of accepting the interpretations of larger powers. Diplomatic relationships necessarily involve accommodation, but accommodation is not identical to surrendering policy autonomy.

Beyond the slogan

The One-China question is therefore more complicated than the standard formulation suggests. Historically, it emerged from a contest in which two governments claimed to represent China. The PRC ultimately secured international recognition as the government representing China and took China's seat at the United Nations. Taiwan, under the ROC government, subsequently developed along a separate political and economic trajectory.

That history matters because it explains why “One China” is not simply a geographical statement. It is also a question of representation, legitimacy and diplomatic recognition. The United Nations is an important part of that story, but it should not become a substitute for the story itself. Resolution 2758 answered the institutional question of who represents China at the UN. It did not eliminate the historical circumstances that produced the dispute or automatically determine the meaning that every country must attach to its own One-China Policy.

For the Philippines, the prudent approach is therefore neither to discard the policy casually nor to treat it as an unlimited commitment to Beijing's interpretation.

The better approach is to recover the distinction between recognition and endorsement, representation and sovereignty, diplomatic commitment and national interest. That distinction allows Manila to maintain its established diplomatic relationship with Beijing while preserving the policy space necessary to protect Philippine economic and security interests.

It also avoids a false choice. The Philippines does not have to decide whether Beijing or Taipei is the country's preferred historical narrator of China. It has to decide what the Philippine government recognizes, what it has agreed to, what it remains free to determine for itself, and how those choices serve Philippine interests.

For a country whose economy is deeply connected to the wider East Asian system, that is not a philosophical distinction. It is a practical one. And perhaps that is where the One-China debate should begin: not with the assumption that Beijing's interpretation is the only possible meaning of the phrase, but with the more basic question of what the Philippines itself means when it says it has a One-China Policy—and whether that meaning is being defined in Manila or elsewhere.  

September 21 and the Continuing Past

September 21 and the Continuing Past




There was something appropriate about the route taken through Manila on September 21.

Activists and multi-sectoral groups gathered at Liwasang Bonifacio before marching toward Mendiola for the 54th commemoration of the declaration of martial law. Their grievances did not stop at 1972. Corruption, human rights violations, the flood-control controversy and the proposed Pax Silica development all appeared in a protest that sought to connect an unhappy past with an equally unsettled present.

The contingent was initially blocked by authorities along Recto near Mendiola before proceeding with its final program. Elsewhere around the capital, police and barricades had already become part of the scenery as thousands were expected to join various September 21 demonstrations. Accountability over corruption, political dynasties and civil liberties figured prominently in the day's mobilizations.

It would be tempting to treat all this as another annual ritual: speeches, placards, the familiar chants of “Never Again,” followed by the inevitable arguments over what martial law accomplished and what it destroyed.

Yet September 21 persists precisely because the argument has never really been confined to martial law. It is also an argument over how power presents itself, how development is sold, how corruption survives political transitions and how easily the language of national salvation can become the language through which entrenched interests protect themselves.

That is why the starting point must still be 1972. Martial law was imposed with promises of order, discipline, reform and national reconstruction. What followed included widespread arrests and detention, torture, enforced disappearances and killings of people considered opponents or critics of the government. Amnesty International documented such patterns during the period; Philippine law itself later formally recognized victims of summary execution, torture, enforced disappearance and other gross human-rights violations committed under the Marcos regime.

These facts need not be embellished. Their weight is sufficient. But the more interesting question today is how such a system explained itself.

Martial law did not advertise repression as its objective. It offered instead a grander proposition: the republic had to be saved and society remade. The old political order was supposedly exhausted. Oligarchs had corrupted democracy. Disorder had become intolerable. Only a more disciplined state could sweep aside the failures of the past and construct something new.

The phrases associated with the period — the “New Society,” the need to “save the republic,” even the notion of a “revolution from the center” — reveal something important about political power. Measures that concentrate authority seldom arrive carrying labels that say concentration of authority. They arrive as solutions to disorder. And the vocabulary was clever because it borrowed the grievances of ordinary people.

The old society really was unequal. Oligarchic power really was a problem. Poverty, landlordism, political patronage and dependence on outside interests were not inventions of martial-law propaganda. The failure lay in claiming that concentrating political authority would solve these problems.

Instead, the attack on the old oligarchy became associated with the rise of cronies and favored interests surrounding the new regime. One arrangement of privilege gave way, in significant respects, to another.

That distinction is worth remembering because it prevents September 21 from becoming merely an argument over whether roads, hospitals or cultural buildings were constructed during the dictatorship. Of course things were built, as Governments build things. But the more serious questions concern lies in how they were financed, who benefited, what institutions were weakened in the process and whether visible construction compensated for costs carried elsewhere by the population. Concrete is an inadequate unit with which to measure political legitimacy.

The same caution applies in the present. The Philippines of 2026 is not the Philippines of 1972. There is no useful analysis in pretending that every controversy involving government is simply martial law reborn. Institutions differ, political competition exists, circumstances change and contemporary abuses require examination on their own terms. But the persistence of certain questions is difficult to ignore. Extrajudicial killings, red-tagging, alleged trumped-up charges, anti-terror laws and the treatment of political dissent have replaced some of the terminology associated with the dictatorship. They are not interchangeable phenomena, and they should not be lazily collapsed into one historical category. Yet they keep alive the older dispute over where legitimate state power ends and political coercion begins.

So does corruption. Every generation seems to discover corruption as though previous generations had somehow neglected the subject. Scandal is exposed, hearings are held, officials denounce wrongdoing, prosecutions begin and reforms are promised. A few years later the country discovers that public money has once again acquired a remarkable talent for finding its way toward private interests.

That recurring spectacle explains why corruption occupied such a prominent place in the September 21 demonstrations. The commemoration became not merely a retrospective condemnation of what happened half a century ago but a convenient occasion for asking why the political structures that permit patronage, concentrated wealth and weak accountability remain so difficult to dislodge.

Pax Silica entered the march from this direction. Opposition to it should not be mistaken for the whole protest, nor should criticism of Pax Silica be reduced to hostility toward technology or foreign investment.

The proposed initiative is tied to semiconductor manufacturing, artificial intelligence infrastructure, critical minerals and other strategic supply chains, with a major hub planned in New Clark City. Supporters see an opportunity to place the Philippines inside higher-value technological industries. Critics, including labor, environmental, church and other civil-society groups, have raised questions about control, land and water use, environmental costs and the extent to which the project aligns Philippine development with the strategic objectives of the United States.

There is a serious economic argument buried beneath the slogans. A semiconductor plant on Philippine soil is not automatically Philippine industrialization. Neither is an artificial-intelligence complex necessarily technological sovereignty. A mine producing strategic minerals may generate exports without developing downstream industry. A data center may attract capital without producing Filipino ownership of the technologies running inside it.

None of this makes such investments undesirable by definition. Foreign capital can create employment. Integration into sophisticated supply chains can expose local firms and workers to new technologies. Industrial parks, transport corridors and energy projects can become foundations for something larger.

But the outcome depends on the terms. That is the part of development policy that ribbon-cuttings tend to obscure. If land, labor, minerals, electricity and public infrastructure are supplied locally while technology, intellectual property, financing and commanding corporate decisions remain elsewhere, then the country may host advanced industry without acquiring much industrial power of its own.

The factory may be modern while the economic relationship remains old. That concern explains why Pax Silica has become useful to a broader critique of Philippine development. Protesters opposing the initiative have explicitly argued that development should occur on Philippine terms rather than those set by foreign powers and large corporations.

Whether that criticism ultimately proves justified will depend on the actual agreements, technology transfers, ownership structures, environmental obligations and industrial policies attached to the project. But the question itself is legitimate.

It is also much older than Pax Silica. Philippine governments have spent decades navigating between domestic oligarchic interests and competing foreign centers of economic and strategic power. Washington retains deep security and commercial links with Manila. Beijing has become a major economic actor and geopolitical rival. Japanese, Korean and European capital occupies important sectors. Global finance exerts its own disciplines through investment, debt and access to markets.

The danger lies in confusing movement between these interests with independence from them. For critics marching on September 21, the issue is not simply American influence, nor should it be. Replacing Washington with Beijing would hardly constitute economic sovereignty. Nor would replacing one set of foreign investors with another while leaving the basic domestic structure untouched.

The problem is less geographical than structural. Wall Street or Shanghai, Washington or Beijing: the relevant economic question is what the Philippines gains beyond the immediate transaction.

Does foreign investment create domestic suppliers? Does it transfer technology? Does it produce engineers and researchers capable of building the next generation of industry? Does it deepen Filipino capital formation? Does it strengthen local control over strategic sectors? Does dependence diminish as development proceeds? Or does the country remain primarily a supplier of labor, land and resources while celebrating each new investment announcement as evidence that industrialization has finally arrived?

Those questions become harder to avoid when set against the conditions experienced by ordinary Filipinos.

The country has changed enormously since 1972. Cities have expanded. Industries have developed. Millions now work in sectors that hardly existed half a century ago. Infrastructure has improved, technology has transformed daily life and the Philippine economy is far larger and more complex.

Yet familiar problems remain stubbornly recognizable: insecure employment, inadequate wages, landlessness, housing shortages, unequal public services, political dynasties and recurring corruption.

This persistence gives every new language of transformation a burden of proof. There was once the New Society. Later governments had their own formulas for national recovery, modernization and reform. "Philippines 2000", "Angat Pinoy 2004", "Daang Matuwid", and more recently came "Build, Build, Build" and now "Bagong Pilipinas". Every administration naturally requires a vocabulary with which to explain itself.

The trouble begins when vocabulary substitutes for examination. Order is not necessarily justice. Discipline is not necessarily consent. Investment is not necessarily industrialization. Infrastructure is not necessarily development. Stability is not necessarily legitimacy.

Nor does questioning these terms require rejecting what they can genuinely accomplish.A useful road remains useful. A functioning railway improves lives. A productive factory creates employment. Foreign partnerships can serve Philippine interests. Public authority is necessary for any functioning society.

The point is precisely to distinguish the thing itself from the political mythology built around it. A road can be necessary and overpriced. A factory can create jobs while transferring little technology. A foreign partnership can be mutually beneficial or profoundly unequal. An administration can construct useful public works and still deserve scrutiny for abuses committed elsewhere.

One does not cancel the other. That is also why arguments defending martial law by listing infrastructure have always been inadequate. They treat repression and development as entries in the same ledger, as though enough bridges might eventually balance an enforced disappearance.

For the families of those arrested, tortured, killed or never seen again, September 21 necessarily means something more intimate than a historical debate over economic statistics. The Philippine state has already recognized that such violations occurred.

For the rest of the country, however, the date poses a different challenge. It asks how a political order promising to destroy oligarchy could produce new concentrations of privilege; how repression could be marketed as discipline; and how policies presented as national development could coexist with enormous private accumulation and continuing poverty.

Those are historical questions, but they are not antiquarian ones. The Marcos dictatorship did not invent inequality, oligarchy or foreign dependence. Its overthrow did not eliminate them. EDSA restored democratic institutions without magically resolving the political economy beneath them. Subsequent administrations operated within many of the same unresolved structures, even as each modified them in important ways.

That is the more sober meaning of a “continuing past.” History does not simply repeat 1972. It does something more complicated. Old problems survive while acquiring new institutions, new personalities and new slogans.

The result is not another New Society but the recurring temptation to believe that political concentration can cure political failure, that foreign alignment can substitute for national strategy, or that impressive construction can settle the argument over who actually benefits from development.

Seen this way, the September 21 march from Liwasang Bonifacio toward Mendiola was less a reenactment of an old struggle than an argument about unfinished business. Pax Silica was part of it, but only part. So were corruption, inequality, state violence, foreign influence and the continuing ability of entrenched interests — domestic or foreign — to adapt themselves to whichever language happens to dominate the moment.

This does not mean that nothing has changed since martial law. Much has. It means instead that democratic memory is most useful when it does more than remember villains and victims. It should also examine the arrangements that made abuse politically possible and economic dependence durable.

“Never Again” remains an important warning. But perhaps the harder lesson of September 21 is that the past rarely announces its return under its old name.

It usually arrives rephrased for the present.